Position Size
Normal to 75% sizeMacro regime: Risk-On
72.9
Macro Risk Score
Risk-On
Favor equities and cyclical risk, keep trailing risk controls active.
Strongest Supports
Credit Spreads
90
Financial Stress
90
Labor Cycle
82.0
Main Risks
Rate Pressure
45
Liquidity Impulse
61.8
Growth Momentum
63.6
Daily Trade Plan
One-page trading bias synthesized from macro score, dollar pressure, recession, rates, liquidity, inflation, and credit.
Today Bias
Selective Long
Take long trades selectively, prefer leaders, and avoid late entries after extended moves.
Preferred
SPY
QQQ only on clean setups
Quality large caps
Avoid / Reduce
Weak sectors
Crowded breakouts
Holding losers overnight
Top Risks
Inflation: Sticky inflation keeps Fed pressure alive.
100
Dollar: Strong dollar pressures EM, commodities, gold, and multinationals.
56.0
Rates: Rising yields pressure QQQ, TLT, real estate, and growth.
50.5
Liquidity: Tight liquidity weakens rallies.
39.5
Pre-Market Checklist
Look for long setups in leaders first; do not chase extended gaps.
Check SPY/QQQ trend: price above key moving averages favors long bias.
Confirm VIX and credit are not rising sharply before increasing size.
Avoid new swing risk ahead of CPI, payrolls, FOMC, or major earnings if module risk is elevated.
If macro bias and chart trend disagree, reduce size and shorten holding period.
| Module | Score | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Macro | 72.9 | Higher is better for risk appetite |
| Credit Risk | 30 | Higher is worse for risk appetite |
| Recession Risk | 4.0 | Higher is worse for risk appetite |
| Liquidity Tightness | 39.5 | Higher is worse for risk appetite |
| Rate Pressure | 50.5 | Higher is worse for risk appetite |
| Inflation Pressure | 100 | Higher is worse for risk appetite |
| Global Pressure | 56.0 | Higher is worse for risk appetite |
ALFRED Vintage Engine
Point-in-time macro data for honest backtests. Compare real-time vintage values against today’s revised FRED data.
Ready. FRED_API_KEY detected.
Vintage Value--
Revised Value--
Latest Revision--
Max Abs Revision--
Mean Abs Revision--
Points--
Vintage vs Revised
Revision Delta
PCA Macro Factor Engine
Extracts latent stress, rates, growth, and liquidity factors from macro features without hard-coded thresholds.
31.6% explained
Macro Stress Factor
BAA Spread Change
0.343
Payroll Growth
-0.305
Yield Curve
0.302
Fed Balance Sheet Change
0.278
17.2% explained
Rates / Inflation Factor
Oil Change
0.408
Unemployment Change
-0.374
Breakeven Change
0.367
10Y Rate Change
0.351
12.2% explained
Growth Factor
HY Spread Change
-0.472
Real Yield Change
-0.333
VIX
-0.311
Payroll Growth
-0.307
10.2% explained
Liquidity / Dollar Factor
Bank Reserve Change
0.666
Core CPI Momentum
0.45
Dollar Change
-0.278
Unemployment Change
-0.271
Factor History
HMM Macro Regime Classifier
Uses PCA factor history to estimate probability of Risk-On, Neutral, and Risk-Off regimes.
Dominant State
Risk-Off
Confidence 100.0%. Use regime probability as a filter across equity, bond, and options strategies.
Risk-On0.0%
Neutral0.0%
Risk-Off100.0%
Regime Probabilities
Economic Surprise Index
Forecast-free surprise proxy: latest release momentum compared with its trailing norm, then z-scored.
Composite Surprise
Positive Surprise
This is a forecast-free proxy: latest release momentum minus its trailing norm, z-scored. Positive growth/liquidity surprises support risk; inflation/stress surprises can be two-sided.
Surprise History
| Component | Group | Latest Z | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Payrolls | growth | 1.856 | Positive is risk-supportive |
| Industrial Production | growth | -1.556 | Positive is risk-supportive |
| Unemployment | growth | 0.954 | Positive is risk-supportive |
| Jobless Claims | growth | 0.985 | Positive is risk-supportive |
| CPI | inflation | 4.0 | Positive means hotter pressure |
| Core CPI | inflation | -0.214 | Positive means hotter pressure |
| Oil | inflation | -0.759 | Positive means hotter pressure |
| Liquidity | liquidity | 1.113 | Positive is risk-supportive |
| Credit Stress | stress | 0.787 | Positive is risk-supportive |
Credit
Credit Spreads
2.83
%
HY spread at 2.83%, 30d change -0.45 pts.
Stress
Financial Stress
-0.678
z
Stress index -0.68, 30d change -0.31.
Rates
Yield Curve
0.51
%
Curve +0.51 pts, 90d steepening -0.23 pts.
Rates
Rate Pressure
4.4
%
10Y yield 4.40%, 30d change +0.10 pts.
Volatility
Volatility
16.89
pts
VIX at 16.9.
Growth
Labor Cycle
4.3
%
Unemployment 6m change -0.10 pts; Sahm 0.20.
Growth
Growth Momentum
101.79
%
Industrial production 3m +0.18%, 1y +0.74%.
Inflation
Inflation Pressure
334.165
%
Core CPI 3m annualized 2.90%; 10Y breakeven 2.48%.
Inflation
Real Yield Pressure
1.94
%
10Y real yield 1.94%, 30d change -0.06 pts.
Liquidity
Liquidity Impulse
6699950.0
%
Fed assets 3m +1.71%; reverse repo 3m -93.70%.
Market Regime Charts
Five-year FRED history, grouped by the inputs traders usually watch before changing exposure.
Credit, Stress, Volatility
Rates and Curve
Growth
Inflation and Real Yields
Liquidity
Quant Macro Backtester
Test whether the macro regime filter improved risk-adjusted returns versus FRED market proxies.
Ready
Strategy Return--
Buy & Hold--
Strategy CAGR--
Sharpe--
Max Drawdown--
Exposure--
Trades--
Last Signal--
Equity Curve
Strategy Drawdown
Macro Score and Exposure
Dollar & Global Macro Pressure
Tracks dollar strength, real yields, oil, inflation expectations, rates, and stress for cross-asset bias.
Global Pressure Score
Moderate Pressure
Macro pressure is mixed; favor selective trades, quality, and confirmation from price trend.
DTWEXBGS
Dollar Pressure
118.729
%
30d -1.16%, 90d -0.14%. Strong dollar can pressure EM, commodities, and multinational earnings.
DFII10
Real Yield Pressure
1.94
%
10Y real yield 1.94%, 30d change -0.06 pts. Rising real yields pressure gold and growth.
DCOILWTICO
Oil / Inflation Pressure
99.89
$
Oil 30d -1.35%, 90d +61.01%; breakeven 30d +0.17 pts.
VIXCLS
Risk Stress
16.89
pts
VIX 16.9, HY spread 2.83%, 30d HY change -0.45 pts.
DGS10
Rate Pressure
4.4
%
10Y yield 30d change +0.10 pts; real yield 1.94%.
Dollar, Real Yields, 10Y Yield
Oil, Inflation Expectations, VIX
| Market | Bias | Trading Read |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equities | Neutral | Best when stress, real yields, and dollar pressure are falling. |
| Gold | Caution | Usually improves when real yields and the dollar weaken. |
| Commodities | Supportive | Dollar weakness and inflation impulse are supportive; stress can dominate. |
| EM / Global Risk | Neutral | Most sensitive to a strong dollar and tighter global funding. |
Recession Probability Trading Alert
Use as a swing-trading risk brake: when this rises, reduce long duration and cyclical exposure.
Module Score
Low Recession Risk
Use as a swing-trading risk brake: when this rises, reduce long duration and cyclical exposure.
Low
Sahm Rule
0.2
pts
Above 0.5 is a classic recession warning area.
Low
Recession Probability
1.82
%
Model-based recession probability.
Low
Yield Curve
0.51
pts
Deep inversion raises late-cycle risk.
Low
Claims 90d
-10.427
%
Rising claims warn of labor-market softening.
Primary Signals
Secondary Signals
Interest Rate & Bond Market Dashboard
Rising rate pressure usually hurts QQQ, long-duration growth, TLT, and real estate; falling pressure supports duration.
Module Score
Rate Relief
Rising rate pressure usually hurts QQQ, long-duration growth, TLT, and real estate; falling pressure supports duration.
Low
10Y Yield
4.4
%
30d change +0.10 pts.
Low
2Y Yield
3.88
%
Front-end Fed path pressure.
Low
10Y-2Y Curve
0.51
pts
Inversion points to late-cycle pressure.
Low
30Y Yield
4.98
%
Long bond valuation pressure.
Low
Mortgage Rate
6.3
%
Housing and consumer pressure.
Primary Signals
Secondary Signals
Liquidity Conditions Monitor
Liquidity improvement supports risk assets; tightening weakens rallies and raises gap risk.
Module Score
Liquidity Support
Liquidity improvement supports risk assets; tightening weakens rallies and raises gap risk.
Low
Fed Assets 90d
1.706
%
Falling Fed assets can tighten liquidity.
Low
Bank Reserves 90d
0.586
%
Reserve growth is supportive.
Low
Reverse Repo 90d
-93.696
%
RRP rise can absorb liquidity.
Low
TGA 90d
6.38
%
TGA rebuild can drain liquidity.
Low
M2 1Y
4.575
%
Broad money contraction is a headwind.
Primary Signals
Secondary Signals
Inflation Pressure Dashboard
High inflation pressure keeps Fed/rate risk alive; cooling inflation supports bonds and growth multiples.
Module Score
Hot Inflation Pressure
High inflation pressure keeps Fed/rate risk alive; cooling inflation supports bonds and growth multiples.
High
CPI 3m Ann.
5.408
%
Headline inflation momentum.
Low
Core CPI 3m Ann.
2.905
%
Core trend matters most for Fed pressure.
Low
10Y Breakeven
2.48
%
30d change +0.17 pts.
High
Oil 90d
61.009
%
Oil spikes can revive inflation risk.
Primary Signals
Secondary Signals
Credit Stress Alert App
Credit widening is one of the better early warnings for equity drawdown risk.
Module Score
Credit Calm
Credit widening is one of the better early warnings for equity drawdown risk.
Low
HY Spread
2.83
%
30d change -0.45 pts.
Low
BAA Spread
1.7
%
30d change -0.09 pts.
Low
Financial Stress
-0.678
z
Positive values indicate elevated stress.
Low
NFCI
-0.518
z
Tighter financial conditions hurt risk appetite.
Primary Signals
Secondary Signals
Sector Rotation Macro App
Use this for watchlist bias, not blind sector buying. Confirm with price trend and relative strength.
Module Score
Balanced Rotation
Use this for watchlist bias, not blind sector buying. Confirm with price trend and relative strength.
Neutral
Risk Appetite
67.625
score
Higher favors cyclicals and growth.
Low
Rate Headwind
50.5
score
Higher hurts duration sectors.
Low
Credit Headwind
30
score
Higher favors defensive posture.
Low
Liquidity Headwind
39.5
score
Higher means tighter liquidity.
| Sector / Asset | Bias | Score | Trading Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology / Growth | Pressure | 48.9 | Best when real yields and rate pressure fall. |
| Financials | Pressure | 43.8 | Can like higher rates, but dislikes credit stress. |
| Energy | Supportive | 70.8 | Helped by oil/inflation impulse, hurt by recession pressure. |
| Defensives | Pressure | 45.4 | Utilities, staples, healthcare gain appeal when stress rises. |
| Bonds / TLT | Pressure | 18.1 | Needs falling rates/inflation or recession hedge demand. |
| Cash | Neutral | 51.4 | Cash becomes attractive when macro pressure is high. |
Economic Calendar + FRED Impact Tracker
Use this as a release checklist. Around high-impact data, reduce size or wait for the post-release direction.
Module Score
Active Event Tape
Use this as a release checklist. Around high-impact data, reduce size or wait for the post-release direction.
Low
Event Risk
52.862
score
Based on recent movement in key release series.
Low
High Impact Items
2.0
count
Items with elevated recent movement.
Primary Signals
Secondary Signals
| Event | FRED ID | Frequency | Latest Date | Latest | 30d Change | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | CPIAUCSL |
Monthly | 2026-03-01 | 330.293 | 3.705 | Inflation surprise can move rates, USD, gold, QQQ. |
| Core CPI | CPILFESL |
Monthly | 2026-03-01 | 334.165 | 1.372 | Core trend drives Fed-rate repricing. |
| Payrolls | PAYEMS |
Monthly | 2026-03-01 | 158637.0 | 45.0 | Labor strength affects Fed path and recession risk. |
| Unemployment | UNRATE |
Monthly | 2026-03-01 | 4.3 | 0.0 | Rising unemployment raises recession pressure. |
| Jobless Claims | ICSA |
Weekly | 2026-04-25 | 189000.0 | -22000.0 | Weekly pulse for labor softening. |
| Fed Balance Sheet | WALCL |
Weekly | 2026-04-29 | 6699950.0 | 42789.0 | Liquidity changes affect risk appetite. |
| HY Spread | BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
Daily | 2026-04-30 | 2.83 | -0.45 | Credit widening warns of equity drawdown risk. |
| VIX | VIXCLS |
Daily | 2026-04-30 | 16.89 | -8.36 | Volatility shock changes position sizing. |
Capitol Trades Flow
Past five months of public congressional trade disclosures with ticker, asset type, buy/sell, size, price, and reporting delay.
Political Trade Flow
Net Buy Flow
Recent public disclosures lean toward buying. Treat as watchlist confirmation only, because disclosures are delayed.
Updated 2026-05-03 04:53 UTC · CapitolTrades.com
Buys886
Sells697
Stocks1206
ETFs55
Top Stock / ETF Flow
GS · The Goldman Sachs Group Inc · Buy flow
Stock | B 9 / S 0 | 2026-03-19 | $809.50
17.47
BRK/B · Berkshire Hathaway Inc · Sell flow
Stock | B 1 / S 7 | 2026-03-31 | $479.20
-8.98
PLTR · Palantir Technologies Inc · Sell flow
Stock | B 1 / S 10 | 2026-03-30 | $137.55
-8.29
AJG · Arthur J. Gallagher & Co · Buy flow
Stock | B 6 / S 0 | 2026-03-30 | $215.95
7.58
CVX · Chevron Corp · Sell flow
Stock | B 0 / S 5 | 2026-03-23 | $205.21
-7.42
NVDA · NVIDIA Corporation · Sell flow
Stock | B 3 / S 12 | 2026-04-08 | $182.08
-7.39
SPGI · S&P Global Inc · Buy flow
Stock | B 8 / S 1 | 2026-03-31 | $425.34
7.37
FULT · FULTON FINANCIAL CORP · Sell flow
Stock | B 0 / S 3 | 2026-04-23 | $22.08
-6.98
AVGO · Broadcom Inc · Sell flow
Stock | B 2 / S 9 | 2026-03-31 | $309.51
-6.37
VTI · Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF · Buy flow
ETF | B 6 / S 0 | 2026-03-31 | $320.81
6.2
Most Active Politicians
Ro Khanna
575
Michael McCaul
189
Gil Cisneros
139
Richard Blumenthal
121
Jared Moskowitz
53
Mark Warner
45
Josh Gottheimer
34
Julia Letlow
33
| Month | Bias | Buys | Sells | Stocks | ETFs | Flow Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | Buy | 48 | 39 | 48 | 10 | 35.73 |
| 2026-03 | Buy | 651 | 550 | 971 | 45 | 104.67 |
| 2026-02 | Buy | 184 | 106 | 187 | 0 | 113.02 |
| 2026-01 | Sell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1.05 |
| 2025-12 | Buy | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Month | Ticker | Asset | Issuer | Bias | Buys | Sells | Last Price | Last Trade | Flow Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | FULT |
Stock | FULTON FINANCIAL CORP | Sell | 0 | 3 | $22.08 | 2026-04-23 | -6.98 |
| 2026-04 | VZ |
Stock | Verizon Communications Inc | Sell | 0 | 2 | $47.22 | 2026-04-23 | -3.62 |
| 2026-04 | IWD |
ETF | iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF | Sell | 0 | 3 | $223.71 | 2026-04-13 | -2.4 |
| 2026-04 | AMGN |
Stock | Amgen Inc | Sell | 0 | 3 | $340.00 | 2026-04-07 | -2.19 |
| 2026-04 | MAR |
Stock | Marriott International Inc | Buy | 1 | 0 | N/A | 2026-04-08 | 1.87 |
| 2026-04 | ACN |
Stock | Accenture PLC | Buy | 2 | 0 | $191.95 | 2026-04-13 | 1.6 |
| 2026-04 | HOG |
Stock | Harley-Davidson Inc | Sell | 0 | 1 | $21.18 | 2026-04-07 | -1.53 |
| 2026-04 | CBRL |
Stock | Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc | Sell | 0 | 1 | $28.54 | 2026-04-01 | -1.4 |
| 2026-03 | BRK/B |
Stock | Berkshire Hathaway Inc | Sell | 1 | 7 | $479.20 | 2026-03-31 | -8.98 |
| 2026-03 | AJG |
Stock | Arthur J. Gallagher & Co | Buy | 6 | 0 | $215.95 | 2026-03-30 | 7.58 |
| 2026-03 | CVX |
Stock | Chevron Corp | Sell | 0 | 5 | $205.21 | 2026-03-23 | -7.42 |
| 2026-03 | SPGI |
Stock | S&P Global Inc | Buy | 8 | 1 | $425.34 | 2026-03-31 | 7.37 |
| 2026-03 | GS |
Stock | The Goldman Sachs Group Inc | Buy | 4 | 0 | $809.50 | 2026-03-19 | 7.3 |
| 2026-03 | MSFT |
Stock | Microsoft Corp | Buy | 10 | 6 | $358.96 | 2026-03-30 | 7.03 |
| 2026-03 | PLTR |
Stock | Palantir Technologies Inc | Sell | 1 | 9 | $137.55 | 2026-03-30 | -6.89 |
| 2026-03 | VTI |
ETF | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Buy | 6 | 0 | $320.81 | 2026-03-31 | 6.2 |
| 2026-02 | GS |
Stock | The Goldman Sachs Group Inc | Buy | 5 | 0 | N/A | 2026-02-25 | 10.17 |
| 2026-02 | LRCX |
Stock | Lam Research Corp | Sell | 0 | 3 | $231.29 | 2026-02-12 | -4.07 |
| 2026-02 | ANET |
Stock | Arista Networks Inc | Sell | 0 | 2 | $135.12 | 2026-02-12 | -3.41 |
| 2026-02 | TTWO |
Stock | Take-Two Interactive Software Inc | Sell | 0 | 3 | $190.36 | 2026-02-12 | -3.35 |
| 2026-02 | SAP |
Stock | SAP SE | Buy | 4 | 0 | $204.53 | 2026-02-13 | 3.27 |
| 2026-02 | HURN |
Stock | HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC | Buy | 2 | 0 | $141.40 | 2026-02-27 | 3.18 |
| 2026-02 | FCN |
Stock | FTI Consulting Inc | Buy | 2 | 0 | $164.42 | 2026-02-27 | 3.18 |
| 2026-02 | WAL |
Stock | Western Alliance Bancorporation | Sell | 0 | 2 | $91.17 | 2026-02-19 | -2.98 |
Indicator Tape
Current values and short-term changes. Check release frequency before reacting intraday.
| FRED ID | Indicator | Group | Latest | 30d | 90d | Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T10Y2Y |
10Y - 2Y Curve | Rates | 0.51 % | -0.010 | -0.230 | Slope of the Treasury curve. |
DGS10 |
10Y Treasury | Rates | 4.4 % | +0.100 | +0.140 | Long-rate pressure on duration assets. |
DGS20 |
20Y Treasury | Rates | 4.97 % | +0.090 | +0.150 | Long-bond yield used for synthetic TLT proxy. |
DGS30 |
30Y Treasury | Rates | 4.98 % | +0.100 | +0.110 | Long bond yield. |
DGS5 |
5Y Treasury | Rates | 4.02 % | +0.100 | +0.230 | Intermediate Treasury yield. |
DGS1 |
1Y Treasury | Rates | 3.72 % | +0.040 | +0.240 | Short Treasury yield. |
DGS2 |
2Y Treasury | Rates | 3.88 % | +0.090 | +0.360 | Front-end rate and Fed path pressure. |
DFF |
Effective Fed Funds | Rates | 3.64 % | +0.000 | +0.000 | Policy rate anchor. |
MORTGAGE30US |
30Y Mortgage Rate | Rates | 6.3 % | -0.080 | +0.200 | Housing and duration pressure. |
DTWEXBGS |
Trade-Weighted Dollar | Dollar | 118.729 index | -1.399 | -0.168 | Broad U.S. dollar pressure. |
DCOILWTICO |
WTI Crude Oil | Commodities | 99.89 $ | -1.370 | +37.850 | Oil price pressure for inflation and global growth. |
BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
High Yield Spread | Credit | 2.83 % | -0.450 | +0.030 | Stress in speculative-grade credit. |
BAA10Y |
BAA - 10Y Spread | Credit | 1.7 % | -0.090 | +0.080 | Corporate credit compensation over Treasuries. |
STLFSI4 |
St. Louis Financial Stress | Stress | -0.678 z | -0.312 | +0.032 | Broad market stress index. |
NFCI |
Chicago Fed NFCI | Stress | -0.518 z | -0.056 | +0.048 | National financial conditions. |
VIXCLS |
VIX | Volatility | 16.89 pts | -8.360 | -0.550 | Equity volatility and hedging demand. |
UNRATE |
Unemployment Rate | Growth | 4.3 % | +0.000 | -0.100 | Labor-market cycle signal. |
SAHMREALTIME |
Sahm Rule | Growth | 0.2 pts | -0.100 | -0.150 | Real-time recession rule indicator. |
ICSA |
Initial Jobless Claims | Growth | 189000.0 claims | -22000.000 | -22000.000 | Weekly labor stress pulse. |
PAYEMS |
Nonfarm Payrolls | Growth | 158637.0 k | +45.000 | +205.000 | Employment level. |
RECPROUSM156N |
Recession Probability | Growth | 1.82 % | +1.580 | +1.660 | Smoothed U.S. recession probability. |
INDPRO |
Industrial Production | Growth | 101.79 index | +0.194 | +0.178 | Cyclical production momentum. |
CPIAUCSL |
CPI | Inflation | 330.293 index | +3.705 | +4.262 | Headline inflation level. |
CPILFESL |
Core CPI | Inflation | 334.165 index | +1.372 | +2.351 | Core inflation trend. |
T10YIE |
10Y Breakeven Inflation | Inflation | 2.48 % | +0.170 | +0.120 | Market inflation expectations. |
DFII10 |
10Y Real Yield | Inflation | 1.94 % | -0.060 | +0.040 | Real-rate pressure on gold and growth assets. |
WALCL |
Fed Balance Sheet | Liquidity | 6699950.0 $m | +42789.000 | +112382.000 | System liquidity from Fed assets. |
RRPONTSYD |
Reverse Repo | Liquidity | 0.607 $b | -1.500 | -9.022 | Cash parked at the Fed. |
WTREGEN |
Treasury General Account | Liquidity | 981929.0 $m | +107852.000 | +58887.000 | Treasury cash drain/add source. |
WRESBAL |
Bank Reserves | Liquidity | 2918599.0 $b | -75356.000 | +16999.000 | Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks. |
M2SL |
M2 Money Supply | Liquidity | 22686.0 $b | +256.700 | +332.400 | Broad money supply. |